The Dotard in Chief Speaks

Real things he said today. This is described as a "rush transcript," so it may not be perfect, but it's good enough for our purposes.

Health care is moving along. That was a subsidy to the insurance companies and a gift that was what they gave the insurance companies.

This is a lie. The insurance companies were required by law to offer discounts to low-income Americans, and these payments reimbursed them.

Take a look at where their stock was when Obamacare was originally approved and what it is today. You will see numbers that if you invested in the stocks, you would be extremely happy. They have given them a total gift.

Lie.

They have given them — you can almost call it a pay off.

Lie.

That money goes to the insurance companies. We want to take care of poor people and people that need help with health care.

Lie. Plans offered so far have taken insurance away from millions.

I’m never going to get campaign contributions from the insurance companies, but take a look at how much money has been spent by the Democrats and by the health companies on politicians generally, but take a look at the coffers of the Democrats.

The CSR payments have actually brought Republicans and Democrats together.

To oppose ending them? Huh?

We got calls, emergency calls from the Democrats and I think probably the Republicans were also calling them saying let’s come up with at least a short-term fix of health care in this country.

What?

And the gravy train ended the day I knocked the insurance companies’ money. Which was last week. Hundred of millions of dollars handed to the insurance companies for very little reason.

Lie. There is much agreement that ending these payments will upset the market.

Believe me.

No...

I want the money to go to the people, to poor people that need it.

Uh huh. Believe me.

Not to insurance companies which is where it’s going,  as of last week I ended that. We have a lot of interesting things to do. I’m meeting with Mitch McConnell for lunch and we will say a few words after that.

…

We need health care. We’re going to get the health care done. In my opinion what’s happening is as we meet Republicans are meeting with Democrats because of what I did with the CSR.

Lie. They were meeting before.

I cutoff the gravy train.

Lie.

If I didn’t cut the CSRs, they wouldn’t be meeting. They would be having lunch and enjoying themselves.

Lie. Seriously, you think we are going to give you credit for solving this issue?

They are right now having emergency meetings to get a short-term fix of health care. Where premiums don’t have to double and triple every year like they’ve been doing under Obamacare.

Lie.

Because Obamacare is finished. It’s dead. It’s gone. You shouldn’t even mention it. It’s gone. There is no such thing as Obamacare anymore.

So you just admitted that you are trying to destroy the Affordable Care Act, the law of the land that you have a duty to implement, did I get that right?

I said this years ago. It’s a concept that couldn’t have worked. In its best days it couldn’t have worked.

Lie. You can't work so hard to destroy something and then claim it did not work. That's stupid.

Blah blah blah...

I think the Democrats will be blamed for the mess. This is an Obamacare mess. When the premiums go up, that has nothing to do with anything other than the fact that we had poor care delivered poorly, written poorly, approved by the Democrats.

Lie. This is a Trump mess.

Tillerson was right.

Game of Thrones Predictions

Dead or alive

I am no expert on Game of Thrones, let's be clear about that, nor am I a big follower of fan sites that pick the book and the show apart trying to find clues. I have, however, read the books, and I am currently 200 pages into the last book on my second reading. I have also seen every episode, most of them at least twice, many of them more than twice. Nevertheless, I am just guessing. Gotta do something for the next year and a half.

Who Lives, Who Dies?

Let's start with what I think of as the eight major characters remaining: 3 Lannisters, 2 Starks (sorry Bran), 1 Targaryen, 1 Targaryen/Stark, 1 Night King.

Jon Snow: Lives. He is, so it seems, Azor Ahai, the Prince Who Was Promised. He is ice and fire. He is the product of the noble Ned Stark's most noble deed - claiming that he had fathered a bastard in order to save and raise his sister's child. It would help explain why the first book gave Ned Stark so much attention before killing him.

Daenerys: Dies. It's not a happy thought, but it would resolve the question of who should sit on the throne, and the whole (Targaryen) incest thing, and it would prevent her from having children like the witch said. I will guess this is the way. It would also be unlike most of what we have seen of George R R Martin to give us such an inevitable winner from the beginning and then to have her win.

The Night King: Dies, gets destroyed. Probably defeated by Jon Snow/Aegon Targaryen. His entire army will then drop dead, so to speak.

Tyrion: Lives. I'm a little worried about him though, as I will explain.

Jamie: Lives. Jamie keeps evolving more than anyone else in the story. It would be a shame to kill him.

Sansa: Lives. I think Sansa has a future.

Arya: Lives. Again, I am not so sure, but she's just a girl (though granted a stone-cold killer.) You shouldn't kill a girl.

Cersei: Dies. It's hard to see her coming out on top. Cersei, like Littlefinger until quite recently, always seems to magically get away with bad behavior even though nearly every person alive should be her sworn enemy. It would be an unsatisfactory ending if the odds never caught up with her. And there is the prophecy...

Some lesser characters I do not think will make it:

Euron Greyjoy: I am guessing the Golden Company will never make it to Westeros, although in the book they do, but in a story line that the show left out. Maybe Theon will stop him, maybe dragons, maybe an unwise detour through the Smoking Sea.

Theon: Euron is a better fighter. Theon has been a tragic character for a long, long time. I think Yara gets away though.

Qyburn: Got to get rid of the bad guys eventually. I say dip him in wildfire and strike a match.

The Hound: The Lord of Light saved him for a purpose - so we could see him die a good death. Fighting Gregor Clegane is very dangerous. The Hound may take him out, but I say they both fall.

Jorah Mormont: Another tragic character. His death will be sad.

Beric Dondarion: Whatever.

Brienne: A fan favorite no doubt, but see below.

Others will mostly live, including Sam, Bran, the two remaining dragons, Varys, Bronn, Tormund, who I suspect survived the wall collapse.

Other Predictions

1. Jamie will kill Cersei. Cersei visited a witch and had the witch tell her future, back when Cersei was a girl. So far, the witch has been right about some very specific things, for example that Cersei would have three children and that she would bury them all. Now it looks like Cersei is pregnant, and that would be four, but the witch said three. I say she dies first. The prophecy also said that the "Valonquar" would eventually choke the life out of her. We are told the word means little brother, in some tongue from across the sea. Cersei would of course think that means Tyrion, but I started wondering which twin was born first. Turns out Jamie is also Cersei's little brother by a few minutes. It also turns out that I am not the first person to think of this.
2. Cersei is going to kill Brienne, or have her killed. Right now, in the show, Jamie is having serious doubts about his sister, but he is not ready to kill her. Something will have to put him over the edge, and my guess is that means that Cersei will be responsible for either Tyrion's death or Brienne's. The show, and the books, spent a fair amount of time establishing a strong connection between Jamie and Brienne. I am guessing it will be Brienne.
3. Jon will sit on the iron throne in the end. The only real wild card was Littlefinger, but no longer. It could be the Night King, but not likely. Otherwise, Jon, Cersei, and Danerys are the only decent candidates. I don't think Cersei is really in the running. I think Jon.
4. Sansa will become Queen of the North. Sooner or later the northern lords will find out that Jon Snow is Aegon Targaryen, rightful heir to the iron throne, and not rightful heir to Winterfell. They will not continue to follow him. Jon being the good guy that he is will grant Sansa rule of the North.
5. Jon will ride Rhaegal, the second living dragon, allowing him and and Danerys to gang up on the Night King and Viserion, the undead dragon.

I am already wondering how much of this I got wrong. We will see.

Donald Trump does a lot of things I do not like much, but pardoning Joe Arpaio for some reason struck me as particularly unpardonable, if you will, so here is a little post by me trying to explain, to myself as much as anyone, what it was about this particular atrocity that struck me as unredeemable.

A Racist Pardons a Racist for Being a Racist

Hmm, that might be the only reason I need. But anyway, unlike many of Trump's follies - repealing Obamacare and replacing it with something better, or something worse, or anything, or nothing, for example - pardoning Arpaio was not Republican dogma. This was Donald Trump doing what Donald Trump wanted to do, and what he wanted was to pardon a man who is only known on a national scale for using his public office to enforce racist practices, and who was convicted of the crime of using his office to continue racist policies after being told to stop it by a federal court. After Charlottesville, this is just another signal to the racist right wing that our President supports white nationalism.

Arpaio is a Bad, Bad Guy

The Phoenix New Times tweeted a long list of some of the things Arpaio has done over the years, more than just defying a federal court. People died because of this man:

• A guy baked in his cell in one of Arpaio's prison cells, His dead body temperature was 109 degrees.
• Prisoners hanged themselves at a surprising rate in his jails.
• A mother giving birth was denied care long enough that her baby died before she got to the hospital. "Babies often survive the condition, if their mothers go immediately to a hospital. The treatment is simple: immediate delivery."
• He once marched Latino prisoners into an area surrounded by an electric fence.
• He had two reporters arrested for writing about him. They sued and won $3.75 million.
• The numbers seem to differ, but the brutality of his jails and his history of racial profiling have cost Maricopa county somewhere between $44 million and $140 million in court costs, settlements and judgments.

He did not deserve a pardon.

This Smacks of Corruption

Arpaio was an early and enthusiastic Trump supporter (and a known racist. Huh.) Trump pardoned him without even the usual review. It certainly seems as though Trump pardoned him at least partially as a political favor. If that is how pardons will be used, we need to alter the constitution to take away the President's power to pardon.

This Is Not the Usual Pardon

I suppose that by their very nature, Presidential pardons involve the President overriding the criminal courts. However, in most cases the person receiving the pardon has served some punishment and shown some cause why they should be pardoned. Arpaio has not shown contrition and had not even been sentenced. This is not a case of the President saying that Arpaio has somehow redeemed himself. This is the President saying that defying a federal court by racially profiling citizens is OK - that he does not agree with the law, so he is just setting it aside. That seems abusive to me. Pardons were never meant for the President to just decide which laws should be followed and which can be ignored. Again, it really makes you think that Trump should never have been handed that power.

So this one leaves a bitter taste. Donald Trump is an awful person, but pardoning Joe Arpaio went beyond his usual standards of awfulness.

Sixty

And that's a lot.

As I have gotten older, "old" has always moved a little further out in my mind, so that only people significantly older than I am are really "old." Nevertheless, as I hit sixty years old yesterday, I feel like this is really a dividing line between middle age and old age. In short, I am officially old now, even if I don't really quite feel it yet.

As some of the issues that have consumed much of my adult life begin to fade in importance - things like raising the kids, achieving some level of financial stability, establishing a career - I expect that a couple of new concerns will rise to the forefront that were never much of a concern before. Let's call them simply "physical" and "mental."

By "physical" I don't mean necessarily staying in shape or being able to run a marathon; I am thinking more of maintaining the ability to walk normally, to drive, to see, to hear, to go up and down stairs, to carry a suitcase. I worry that when these things start to go, my quality of life will suffer significantly.

Of course, most of those things have already started to fade - if I were to play just one game of football now like I meant it, I think I would probably end up crippled, hospitalized, dead, or maybe all three - but I am still well enough on all counts to get around in my daily life not so differently than 30 years ago. At some fast-approaching age, though, it becomes harder to keep all the parts in working order.

And by "mental" I do not mean keeping the same level of sharpness that I had when I was 20, although to the extent that I may be slipping, that is much more subtle. What I worry more about is dementia in one form or another; I really would prefer not to ever go there, and I am definitely at risk.

Fortunately, I think the solutions to these two issues are the same: take good care of my diabetes, and exercise. I have read that the one thing that has really been shown to improve people's mental abilities as they get older is physical activity - all those brain training games don't really work, surprise, surprise. So keep moving, and that helps keep the blood sugar down, keeps the parts working, and helps keep your brain from rotting away. Good stuff. I made a resolution to get up at 4:40 on weekdays and start exercising regularly.

How am I doing? I had a good 20-minute workout on the rowing machine Sunday, rowed 1,000 meters, so the machine said. Monday I did not even set the alarm. Got to ease into it. Tuesday I set the alarm, then turned it off. This morning I got up early, but had to go into work early. So I guess that's progress.

Just What Does the Word "Replace" Mean?

Don't Let Republicans "Replace" Your House

"Repeal and Replace." Republicans have said over and over that they would "repeal and replace" the Affordable Care Act. They made good on repeal votes 50 times, knowing that they could never get their pointless exercise past President Obama, but now that they have a chance to not only repeal but actually replace, they are coming up short on their promises.

 I have read in some places that the Trumpcare proposals we have seen do not really repeal Obamacare, but I personally would give the Republicans credit for that part if something like the current House or Senate bill passes. Their intention is to eviscerate the ACA, gut it, reverse its impact; if that does not mean technically repealing it, it's close enough that I would say they fulfilled that much of the promise.

But what about the "replace" part? What was that supposed to mean? It's an ordinary-enough word, but I looked it up on Google anyway:

Take the place of

"Ian's smile was replaced by a frown"

That doesn't sound right...

Provide or find a substitute for (something that is broken, old, or inoperative [or imploding!])

"The light bulb needs replacing"

There we go. I suspect that is pretty much the definition of "replace" people were thinking of when they heard "repeal and replace" all those many times. Otherwise, why not just stick with "repeal," and then return to the real favorite Republican solution to health insurance, the one they put forth every day of the Bush administration, which was to do nothing at all, because presumably everything was already great? The thing is, when Medicaid was expanded, when people with limited incomes got subsidies to buy insurance, when people knew they could not get shut out of the market because they were at risk, they realized that the Affordable Care Act made their lives better. So Republicans had to promise they would not just repeal, but replace.

But when I see what the Republican idea of "replace" is, I can't help but think of Inigo Montoya: "I do not think that word means what you think it means." Republicans leaders would "replace" your house with a tarp over your head. They want to replace your car with a pair of shoes, so you can walk. They will "replace" the rug they are pulling out from under us with the floor beneath.

When Donald Trump prematurely celebrated the 50-somethingth time the House repealed the Affordable Care Act, he told us to make no mistake, this represented repeal and replace of Obamacare. If Republicans manage to pass a Trumpcare bill -- and remember that we are dependent upon the courage and decency of Republicans in Congress to stop it -- they will claim again that they made good on their "repeal and replace" campaign promises. And I hope it will be pointed out, a million times and everywhere you look, that taking healthcare coverage away from 23 million people is not "replacing" Obamacare. You broke it, yes, congratulations. You did not replace it.

No, Respectful Dialogue With Republicans Is Not the Answer

A friend of mine -- and let's be clear, someone I have known nearly 50 years now and very much respect -- made a call for one big purple America where we work out our differences respectfully: 

We can open ourselves to collaboration to improve our ideas, and be open and curious towards the solutions of others........We must speak and act with respect, every day. 

And if we are talking about Hilary supporters working with Bernie supporters, great, let's collaborate and learn from each other. I'm all for it. But if you are talking about trying to work with Republicans, having an honest conversation about issues with Republicans, count me out. If you are going to have a rational conversation with someone, you have to believe that that person can be reasonable and rational and can base an argument on actual evidence. I do not believe that Republicans meet that standard.

Let's look at an example:

Obamacare. I believe that virtually everything that Republican leaders ever said about how bad Obamacare is was a lie -- not just them repeating misinformation that they themselves believed, but things that they knew and still know were not true. They did this for political reasons only, to oppose Obama and turn public opinion against him. This, by the way, means that Republican leaders were very deliberately and knowingly working against the best interests of the United States of America in order to enhance their own power and discredit Democrats. It also means that the millions of Republican voters who went along with the ruse were duped. I believe those things happened.

Evidence, you ask?

For starters, it never made any sense to me that not one Republican, not one, could support a federal program based on Romneycare. Not even Mitt Romney. You have a plan that provides health insurance to millions of people, will save tens of thousands of lives, will potentially keep hundreds of thousands of Americans out of bankruptcy, does not increase the deficit, and continues to work through private insurance and has so many features that should appeal to conservatives that in the end even Joe Freakin' Lieberman will sign off on it, and not one Republican votes for it. Not only that, but they vote to repeal it fifty times. It doesn't pass the smell test. It stinks. It feels exactly like they are voting no just to make sure President Obama does not have any bipartisan support. Consider also:

• Republican politicians, including Mitch McConnell, admit that they employed a strategy of opposing President Obama's major initiatives, unanimously if at all possible, so that Democrats could not say they had bipartisan support, and the public would blame Obama for the lack of bipartisanship. Say, that explanation does actually pass the smell test! It sounds exactly like what actually happened!
• One year, the Politifact Lie of the Year was "Death Panels."
• Another year, the Politifact Lie of the Year was "Government Takeover of Healthcare."
• Republican states lined up to refuse to expand Medicaid, cruelly choosing to harm and sometimes kill their own citizens, by all appearances based on no principles at all other than opposing Democrats.
• Given seven years to think about an alternative, Republicans are scrambling to come up with something better. If Obamacare is bad enough to repeal 50 times, it should be really easy to come up with something better. But if they were lying in order to fool the people who support them, if Obamacare was never really so bad, you could understand that it might be hard to come up with something better, which looks to be exactly the case.
• Given seven years to come up with something better, you would think that Republicans could come up with an excellent plan that they could show to the public, expose to public hearings, and take some time to explain. Something they could be proud of. Instead, they are hiding it from us, afraid that if voters know what is in it, their members will face strong opposition from the public. They know their alternatives suck.

But Dennis, you ask, how can you believe that a major political party could perpetrate such a devious and despicable ruse just for political gain? Well, global warming anyone? The simple answer is, if there is money behind it, they can and they will and they have. And when it comes to the Republican rank and file believing a lie, there are the tens of millions who have questioned whether Barack Obama was born in the US, or who believe he is a Muslim, or who think that the economy got worse during Obama's term, or any number of other dumb things they believe.

And that is the real problem. I do not trust Republicans to have an honest and rational point of view about anything. If you do, I think you do not understand what is going on in this country. Look, healthcare is a real, complex issue, with plenty of room for discussion, but I do not want to discuss it with someone that I cannot trust to be rational. And that rules out Republicans. If we are going to sit down and discuss issues in a reasonable,rational, fact-based manner, Republicans do not deserve a seat at the table. Not at a table with me.

We all deal with the problem of confirmation bias. We believe something, and then we trust evidence that supports our belief and reject evidence that suggests we might be wrong. I do not know if anyone is immune. But Republicans don't just suffer from confirmation bias; they have embraced it as their preferred way of dealing with the world. According to polls, they do not trust any network news except Fox News (Google it; it's shocking.) Yes, the whole world is lying to them except the special network created just for them. Democrats by contrast, trust everything except Fox, but they trust Fox more than conservatives trust ABC, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, or CBS. Someone here is being very stupid. I wonder who?

In fact, Republicans have spent decades building a list of experts who cannot be trusted, so that they can brush away any new information without having it impact their thinking. Economists, historians, judges, entire Circuit Courts, the Congressional Budget Office, pollsters - even those with a long history of not favoring either party - anyone can be dismissed as fake news, liberal bias, paid by George Soros, blah blah blah. Republicans have now even convinced themselves that they, who know next to nothing, understand complex questions of science better than actual scientists who actually do know something.

There is room in the world for a conservative point of view. It is the voice that says that government may not be the answer to everything, or that not every social experiment is worth trying, or worth paying for. The problem is, the current version of the Republican Party does not represent that voice. The Republican Party represents nonsense, a very deliberate and carefully constructed retreat from reality, evidence, reason, and rational thought.

My solution? They need to be voted out of office, outnumbered, treated as social pariahs, and eventually sent the way of the Dixiecrats. I do not believe that the party as it is can be rehabilitated to the point that they discuss issues honestly and consider the facts. I believe, very strongly, that we need a United States that does not include the Republican Party, or in which they are completely marginalized. Pursuing some alternate reality in which Republicans come to the table and try to reach compromise and the best result for all Americans is a nice dream, but it's a pipe dream.

Game of Thrones Moments

I was thinking about this post and read a post on the Internet ranking all 60 Game of Thrones episodes from worst to best. Number 60? The same show I wrote about two years in a post titled "GoT - Worst Episode Ever." (Season 5, Episode 6) So I feel somewhat vindicated as a connoisseur of Game of Thrones.

Although I am a bit embarrassed that I used the GoT abbreviation. It seems silly now, like this is what the cool kids call it.

I am almost finished watching Game of Thrones, all six seasons, most of it for at least the third time. So now I will write a few things about it.

My top ten list is not necessarily "favorite" moments, but ten moments that were some combination of shocking, awesome, amazing in some way. A lot of them are from seasons one and six, because I saw season one before I read the books, and of course season six is all new to me. So some things in between, like Tywin's death or Jamie losing a hand, I knew those were coming, so they were not as shocking as they might have been.

Really, I only had nine best scenes, but you have to have ten.

Top 10 Game of Thrones moments

10. Viserys's death

Viserys was a really unpleasant character. I don't know that his death was really shocking, but the way they killed him, the way his head melted, pretty good.

9. Joffrey's death

A great scene, even though I knew it was coming. First, it's really gratifying to see Joffrey die, because he's kind of awful. But the way his face turns all colors, he totally looks like he's dying, really gruesome. Great stuff.

8. The birth of dragons

Let's take a very short break from deaths. Dragons have been extinct for 100 years, or is it 300? They're all gone, never to return. Then Dany walks out of a huge bonfire unharmed, with three live dragons. This changes everything.

7. The Red Wedding (Robb and Catelyn's deaths)

By the third time I watched, I was glad to see Catelyn die. She is soooo grim and gloomy and deathly serious about everything. Not Robb or Talisa though. The red wedding is the second time that we learn that in Martin's world, the heroes of the story die, and we are not sure who the story is about anymore. After this one, we know better than to think that Tyrion or Dany or Jon or Arya or Sansa or Bran will certainly survive to the end. No one is safe.

6. Drogon returns

Even knowing the first time that this was coming, even watching it for at least the fourth time, this scene is just exhilarating. Dany and her small band are surrounded, badly outnumbered. She realizes this is the end, all is lost. She grabs Missandei's hand, closes her eyes -- and we hear the scream of a dragon, followed by a huge ball of fire. Then Drogon circles in while everyone stares, lands with a thump, recognizes Dany, then burns up twenty men or so with one breath. Then another twenty. Then Dany climbs on and flies away. It is a rare moment of complete triumph.

5. Hardhome

This is one of several big battle scenes, and some of the others are really well done. However, nothing can quite match dead people hurtling themselves off of a cliff by the hundreds, then getting up and overwhelming the wildlings and the Night's Watch. By the time the Night King raises all the dead to join his army, we are just as awestruck as Jon Snow is. This is one hell of an enemy. Better hope the wall holds.

4. Shireen's death

Stannis is very stern, very determined, but he is also honorable to some extent, definitely not a villain like Joffrey or Ramsay. Until this scene. What really makes it work is that she screams and screams and screams, and it's horrifying. Like all of these last few scenes, I was left with my jaw dropped open. Did that really happen? Well no, it's fiction, but wow.

3. Cersei blows up Baelor's Sept (Margery and Loras and Mace and Lancel and Kevan and the High Sparrow's deaths.)

I think Kevan was there. We heard about wildfire under the city a long time back, but this was a great plot twist. Just when you think Cersei has finally hit the end of the road...

I do wonder sometimes though, who exactly is supporting Cersei, besides Qyburn and undead Gregor? It seems like virtually every other person in Westeros would take up arms against the three of them. Four if you count Jamie.

2. Ned's death

This is the first really shocking moment in Game of Thrones, and still the most shocking. It's the first time that we learn that the heroes in this story can die gruesome deaths. Up until this moment, Ned Stark is the main character in the story. Suddenly, we are left wondering who the hero is, who is the story about, although of course we soon realize that it's really about Robb...

1. Hodor's death

Hodor's death would not have been such a shock if it had not come with the realization, five seasons after we met the character, that this moment is the genesis of the word and name "Hodor." It comes at the end of a frantic action scene, and it is one of the sadder moments in the series, because Hodor is the sweetest and most innocent person in Westeros. And he dies in a heroic act.

Some other favorite moments, in no particular order:

• Maester Aemon turns out to be Aemon Targaryen, one-time prince.
• The battle of the bastards, especially Ramsay's death and Sansa's smile.
• The battle on the Blackwater, with a huge wildfire explosion.
• Tywin's death. Shouldn't have said "whore."
• When the Hound loses his courage in the face of wildfire, he stops by to ask Sansa if she wants to leave with him. On first watching, it seems crazy. By the third time, you want to shake her and tell her to go with him. He's kind of a big softie. Even Arya likes him in the end.
• When the Hound returns from the dead.
• Some of Arya's story is boring, but I love the character and the actress.
• Arya kills Walder Frey. He is so deserving.
• Melisandre gives birth to a demon.
• Petyr Baelish's monologue to Varys at the end of the episode called The Climb, about how chaos is a ladder, with a backdrop of Joffrey testing his crossbow on Roz. Even Varys is shocked. It's what caused me to put Baelish's picture on my phone.
• Prince Oberyn nearly defeating Gregor Clegane. Very well done.
• Benjen Stark returns, five seasons after he disappeared.
• Jon Snow is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son. This theory was all over the Internet and began to seem inevitable by the time it happened, but it's still a big deal. A Song of Fire and Ice - Targaryen and Stark? The Prince Who Was Promised? George RR Martin setting us up for a crushing disappointment? We will see.

The Active Idiot

And in case you wonder, this post is about Donald Trump, our fine president.

A long time back, I read a book my brother lent me called About Face, by David Hackworth. It was about the Vietnam War, one of those long, very well-researched non-fiction books, and it was about how Hackworth went from one of the most enthusiastic members of the Army to being a big critic of the war. Good book.

Anyway, the thing I remember best from that book and have referred back to many times in my life is the part where Hackworth puts people into four categories based on two criteria: competence and activity. So the four categories are Competent/Active, Competent/Inactive, Incompetent/Active, and Incompetent/Inactive.

Hackworth figured that competent/active people are the ones who drive most of the big, positive things that happen in the world, like maybe building Microsoft or coming up with the Theory of Relativity. Next most useful are the competent/inactive (I would put myself in this category), who need to be pointed in the right direction but end up doing much of what needs to be done. Incompetent/inactive people are not really so bad according to Hackworth because they can always be put to work doing something that needs to be done, even if it's flipping burgers or digging ditches.

It is the incompetent but active people, he argued, who are really a disaster, and they need to be eliminated from any organization. These are people who do not know what they are doing, but they see themselves as being in charge, are eager to act on their own ideas, and are not at all afraid to shake things up. And if you think about that and apply it to people you have known, you can probably see why I keep coming back to it.

Donald Trump is not really an idiot in the usual sense of someone with a low IQ, but he is perhaps literally the most extreme example of an active and incompetent person, at least in his current capacity, that any of us has ever seen. If that was not already clear from his complete lack of political experience, or the obvious ignorance he displayed during the campaign, or from his bizarre cabinet picks, his first few weeks in office have provided ample evidence of his lack of basic competence in the POTUS role.

Trump has one major trait that I have seen in other active incompetents in the business world: He acts impulsively. Shoots from the hip. Acts first, thinks second. He seems literally incapable of planning something long-term, organizing it, assigning tasks, taking it step by step, building something complicated. He seems extremely impatient, unable to establish any long-term plan. I think it is no surprise that almost everything he has done so far has been the result of his own actions -- cabinet picks, a Supreme Court nominee, meetings with world leaders, executive actions -- and not the result of legislation, which requires working with others, forethought, and patience. He just cannot do forethought or patience. Just can't.

Trump has another incompetence trait that, by contrast, I have not seen in many business leaders: He takes things very personally and cannot seem to help himself when it comes to reacting to any opposition as a personal attack. At the same time, he also seems compelled to point to anything, real or unreal, that he sees as positive and make it as clear as possible to one and all that he personally achieved this, and could everyone please give him the adulation he clearly deserves? This may be a much more common and more functional trait in the entertainment world where, credit where it's due, Trump has had some success, In the business world or the political arena, it just seems bizarre. At a minimum, his personal insecurity makes him less effective if only because it causes him to say (or tweet) comments that undermine his credibility and sometimes give us reason to question his sanity.

But what really sets Trump apart is his self-assurance, his lack of self-awareness, his utterly unjustifiable belief in himself. He seems to not only believe that he is qualified to be President despite all evidence; he seems to truly believe that he alone is uniquely qualified to be the best President there can ever be. It just is not likely that anyone so delusional about their own abilities has ever been so far out of their depth and has been handed so much power.

At the center of all his issues is, by all appearances, a man who sees himself as some sort of transcendent figure, a secular messiah. The world turns around him, his personality, his business needs, his popularity, his unique abilities. The rest of us can see what a pathetic delusion that is, but I do not believe that Donald Trump can.

We handed this man the reigns. It is increasingly frustrating that we handed him the reigns by choosing Hillary Clinton, then watching helplessly as an outdated rule gave the presidency to the loser of the democratic vote, but that cannot be helped now. I do not believe that most Americans will ever follow Donald Trump, the ultimate active idiot, but we will all be dragged along. The best we can hope for now is that the ride will not last long.

Letter to my Senators

Senator Cantwell (Murray)

I expect you and every Senate Democrat to join Senator Merkley and filibuster any and every nominee to the Supreme Court who is not Merrick Garland. This is not about treating Republicans the way they treated President Obama; Republicans were never in the position of having a seat stolen from them. You have more justification than they ever had.

What Mitch McConnell and the Republicans did in denying Merrick Garland a hearing was unconscionable; if you allow Republicans to proceed, you are basically telling the American people, and millions of voters like me who have supported you (I have) and who voted for President Obama, that what Mitch McConnell did was OK, just a matter of tactics.

I will vote for and fully support anyone but you in a future Democratic primary if you do not do everything possible to stop Donald Trump's first Supreme Court nomination. They stole it. Raise your voice in protest.

Thanks,

Dennis

How to Show Respect for the President

Fortunately, Republicans have shown us the way. Yes, they're Republicans, but they have control of the Presidency, the Senate, and the House, and apparently that was what a lot of Americans wanted. Fine. We can follow their example.

Claim That He Is Illegitimate
Donald Trump himself was for years the chief proponent of the stupid, baseless, racist notion that President Obama was not legitimately President, because he was not born in the United States. Trump absolutely deserves the same treatment he extended to President Obama, who did, by the way, win the popular vote easily, twice.

Democrats are already questioning Trump’s legitimacy based on his losing the popular vote by a wide margin, or based on Russian interference in the election, but don’t forget it doesn’t have to be true or even make sense. Millions of Russians voted for Trump illegally! NASCAR broadcasts brainwashed audiences with subliminal messages! Anything is fair game, as long as it works. True, Democrats are less likely to get behind that sort of idiocy, but remember, you can just make stuff up if it helps.

Oppose Everything
Mitch McConnell and John Boehner showed us that the best way to honor an American President, and the will of the voters, is unprecedented obstruction of everything the President proposes and everything the people voted for. If you can find common ground, pretend you cannot, so that no legislation can be said to have bipartisan support. Filibuster every bill, no matter how petty. Force everything that passes the Senate to have 60 votes. Hold up judicial appointments, just for spite. Screw over the American people, then blame the President for not working with you.

Block His Supreme Court Nominations
Again, Mitch McConnell shows us the way. Make up a bullshit reason: “We should wait until a President wins the popular vote, or at least comes close.” Or just say we can do whatever we want, don't need a reason - call it the McConnell rule. Then Chuck Schumer can go to Donald Trump and tell him to his face that one of his greatest pleasures in life will be denying Trump any Supreme Court nominations. Trump absolutely deserves no less than the respect shown to President Obama.

Claim He’s a Failure
Does anyone remember Karl Rove? I remember Karl Rove. Before Barack Obama ever took office, Rove was trying to blame him for the stock market tanking. Fox News personalities continued to claim that the Obama Presidency was a failure even during the first couple of years, long before it made any sense to come to such a conclusion, and of course shortly after George W. Bush had crashed the economy, started (but not finished) two wars, screwed up Hurricane Katrina, disgraced the nation by claiming torture was OK and opening Guantanamo, and, you know, actually failed pretty much across the board.

The important point here is that you don’t have to wait for any solid evidence of failure. Start practicing the phrase “failed presidency” now, then label everything that Trump does as a failure. Even if, say, the stock market more than doubles during his Presidency. Or he saves the auto industry. Or pulls the country out of a recession. Or kills Osama bin Laden. Failure, failure, failure. It’s what Karl Rove would do.

Encourage Open Racism
Admittedly, this one will be difficult. I just don’t know how much barely-closeted hatred there is out there for older white men with bad toupees. Even the small hands, it’s funny, but it just doesn't get anyone's hatred revved up. Anyway, I do not really believe that there is a large enough collection of small enough minds on the left side of the political spectrum to make bigotry work the way it does for Republicans, but perhaps we can try to learn from the other side.

What is clear though is that Republicans, by consistently making it clear that the first African-American President was unworthy of their respect -- from shouting “You lie” to refusing to compromise or work together on anything to failing to vote on his judicial nominations, and much more – have encouraged, nurtured, and incited open racists who used to at least feel that opening their stupid mouths in public would expose them for the bigots they are, but now feel they are part of the political mainstream again. Republican leaders must have realized at some point that some pretty despicable groups were feeling energized by their actions, but they either didn’t care or, quite possibly, saw it as a side benefit that would draw more voters to their cause.

Anyway, we don’t really have a significant white-man-hating base that we can rally against Mr. Trump, but we also should never forget that Republicans decided that unleashing open racism was an appropriate way to respect the office of President of the United States.


So when it comes to respecting the next Republican President, giving him a chance, working with him where we can, taking the high road, putting country before partisan squabbles, etc., I recommend that we follow the many examples of the last eight years, the examples that were just ratified by sort of close to half the voters, and especially the examples of the Republican leadership and Donald Trump himself. Let’s show this President all the respect he deserves.

My Experience Working for Amazon

This is not actually my personal experience. It is, however, my son's.

I worked for Amazon as a warehouse worker (a picker, if you will) recently, and I want to share my experience. This is not a story of gross mistreatment, horrible working conditions, meager pay, or bad bosses. It is however a story of bait and switch, dishonesty, disregard for workers, and tossing people aside when you are done with them.

I have another job, testing video games. I get paid to do that. I really like it, but it doesn't pay much. So when a local staffing firm (called Aerotek) advertised for "over one hundred" positions in the local warehouse supporting Amazon Fresh -- Amazon's grocery business - and paying $13.50 an hour, it represented a significant potential upgrade for me. There were full-time and part-time positions, so they said, with potential mandatory overtime. Forty hours per week plus overtime could have easily doubled what I had been earning, so I called.

I knew that some Amazon warehouse workers have shared horror stories on the Internet, but I am 21 and in decent shape, so I figured I would probably be OK, and if it was really awful, I could quit. I did not quit my other job, which at least has the benefit of being very flexible.

Before I could start, I went through an orientation that Aerotek told me would take one hour, but in fact it took three. At the orientation, I signed up for three weeks of shifts. But here was the first sign that something was off: I was told that I would be working for Amazon Prime Now for three weeks, then shifting to Amazon Fresh, because Amazon Prime needed people for the Christmas rush. This was three weeks before Christmas.

[When my dad heard this, his first word was "bullshit." That turned out to be a fair and accurate assessment.]

Amazon Prime Now is a service I had not even heard of, where people can order from 25,000 or so of the most common products people need, and Amazon will deliver them within two hours. It was a little farther from my house than Amazon Fresh, and traffic getting there was bad, but for three weeks, no problem.

I worked for Amazon Prime Now right up until Christmas, including up to 11:00 on Christmas Eve. My shift was 3:00 - 11:00, and I was there early every day and worked a full shift except when they sent me home early, never missed any time. I understood what to do quickly and, as far as I could tell, came close to matching the speed of the permanent employees. The work really was not bad, and I did it to the best of my ability. However, I only ended up working 9.5 days in three weeks. We were not scheduled close to full time, and there was no overtime.

Perhaps I could mention here that I am a recent college graduate. This is what I am doing to generate some income for now.

I contacted Aerotek before Christmas about switching to Amazon Fresh. Their response was that Amazon managers were on vacation, so wait until after the new year started.

I emailed my contact at Aerotek again at the beginning of January. This time I got no response at all. I tried again. No reply. I asked about the 2.5 days I worked but was not paid because no one explained the time card requirements. Again no response.

Aerotek is not going to commit wage theft. We got that straightened out when I called and spoke to the right person. But let's face it: They never intended to give me the job I signed up for and was promised. They lied, because they needed people to collect orders for wealthy customers who wanted last minute stuff for Christmas right up until Christmas Eve, and they knew it would be a hard sell to get people to commit for two or three weeks of part-time work. After I did a good job, did everything I was asked, they just wanted me to go away as quickly as possible, and they couldn't even be bothered to send a quick email and say they did not have anything for me.

I was not dealing with Amazon directly, but Aerotek is doing their bidding. So I guess the thing I would note from all this is that, yes, Amazon continues to push the limits of customer service, but there is a human price to be paid for that convenience, and Amazon is happy to extract it. To put it a little more bluntly, they treat their customers extremely well, but they treated me like garbage. I do not think that I am the only one.

New Year Resolution

Once again this year, I made a resolution for the new year. I am not a big believer in New Year's resolutions - I always figured that any day is a good one to start working toward a goal, so why wait for January 1 - but once again this is in honor of our friend Kelly from Boy Scouts, who died way too young, and whose daughter asked us at his funeral just before Christmas 2015 to make resolutions, because Kelly always did, and he was very excited about them.

Last year's resolution was to make at least two posts a month on this blog. I only posted 14 times in 2016, but there is a big difference between making a resolution and keeping it. The point here is just to make one.

So my resolution is that I will try to broaden my cooking repertoire. This is not about fancy recipes or becoming a world-class chef. Rather, I find myself needing to make dinners more often these days, so I need ways to put together a quick dinner after work. I do that sometimes, but I have gotten complaints lately about the simplicity of my meals and the lack of variety. This is partly due to my need for diabetic-friendly meals, but all the more reason to have to put some effort into it.

The other day I made orange fish, which involved actually squeezing the juice out of three oranges, but it was an easy recipe. I thought it was only OK, but people seemed to like it.

Maybe meat loaf will be next.