Saturday, June 24, 2017

Just What Does the Word "Replace" Mean?

Don't Let Republicans "Replace" Your House
"Repeal and Replace." Republicans have said over and over that they would "repeal and replace" the Affordable Care Act. They made good on repeal votes 50 times, knowing that they could never get their pointless exercise past President Obama, but now that they have a chance to not only repeal but actually replace, they are coming up short on their promises.

 I have read in some places that the Trumpcare proposals we have seen do not really repeal Obamacare, but I personally would give the Republicans credit for that part if something like the current House or Senate bill passes. Their intention is to eviscerate the ACA, gut it, reverse its impact; if that does not mean technically repealing it, it's close enough that I would say they fulfilled that much of the promise.

But what about the "replace" part? What was that supposed to mean? It's an ordinary-enough word, but I looked it up on Google anyway:

Take the place of

"Ian's smile was replaced by a frown"

That doesn't sound right...

Provide or find a substitute for (something that is broken, old, or inoperative [or imploding!])

"The light bulb needs replacing"

There we go. I suspect that is pretty much the definition of "replace" people were thinking of when they heard "repeal and replace" all those many times. Otherwise, why not just stick with "repeal," and then return to the real favorite Republican solution to health insurance, the one they put forth every day of the Bush administration, which was to do nothing at all, because presumably everything was already great? The thing is, when Medicaid was expanded, when people with limited incomes got subsidies to buy insurance, when people knew they could not get shut out of the market because they were at risk, they realized that the Affordable Care Act made their lives better. So Republicans had to promise they would not just repeal, but replace.

But when I see what the Republican idea of "replace" is, I can't help but think of Inigo Montoya: "I do not think that word means what you think it means." Republicans leaders would "replace" your house with a tarp over your head. They want to replace your car with a pair of shoes, so you can walk. They will "replace" the rug they are pulling out from under us with the floor beneath.

When Donald Trump prematurely celebrated the 50-somethingth time the House repealed the Affordable Care Act, he told us to make no mistake, this represented repeal and replace of Obamacare. If Republicans manage to pass a Trumpcare bill -- and remember that we are dependent upon the courage and decency of Republicans in Congress to stop it -- they will claim again that they made good on their "repeal and replace" campaign promises. And I hope it will be pointed out, a million times and everywhere you look, that taking healthcare coverage away from 23 million people is not "replacing" Obamacare. You broke it, yes, congratulations. You did not replace it.

Saturday, June 17, 2017

No, Respectful Dialogue With Republicans Is Not the Answer

A friend of mine -- and let's be clear, someone I have known nearly 50 years now and very much respect -- made a call for one big purple America where we work out our differences respectfully: 

We can open ourselves to collaboration to improve our ideas, and be open and curious towards the solutions of others........We must speak and act with respect, every day. 

And if we are talking about Hilary supporters working with Bernie supporters, great, let's collaborate and learn from each other. I'm all for it. But if you are talking about trying to work with Republicans, having an honest conversation about issues with Republicans, count me out. If you are going to have a rational conversation with someone, you have to believe that that person can be reasonable and rational and can base an argument on actual evidence. I do not believe that Republicans meet that standard.

Let's look at an example:

Obamacare. I believe that virtually everything that Republican leaders ever said about how bad Obamacare is was a lie -- not just them repeating misinformation that they themselves believed, but things that they knew and still know were not true. They did this for political reasons only, to oppose Obama and turn public opinion against him. This, by the way, means that Republican leaders were very deliberately and knowingly working against the best interests of the United States of America in order to enhance their own power and discredit Democrats. It also means that the millions of Republican voters who went along with the ruse were duped. I believe those things happened.

Evidence, you ask?

For starters, it never made any sense to me that not one Republican, not one, could support a federal program based on Romneycare. Not even Mitt Romney. You have a plan that provides health insurance to millions of people, will save tens of thousands of lives, will potentially keep hundreds of thousands of Americans out of bankruptcy, does not increase the deficit, and continues to work through private insurance and has so many features that should appeal to conservatives that in the end even Joe Freakin' Lieberman will sign off on it, and not one Republican votes for it. Not only that, but they vote to repeal it fifty times. It doesn't pass the smell test. It stinks. It feels exactly like they are voting no just to make sure President Obama does not have any bipartisan support. Consider also:


  • Republican politicians, including Mitch McConnell, admit that they employed a strategy of opposing President Obama's major initiatives, unanimously if at all possible, so that Democrats could not say they had bipartisan support, and the public would blame Obama for the lack of bipartisanship. Say, that explanation does actually pass the smell test! It sounds exactly like what actually happened!
  • One year, the Politifact Lie of the Year was "Death Panels."
  • Another year, the Politifact Lie of the Year was "Government Takeover of Healthcare."
  • Republican states lined up to refuse to expand Medicaid, cruelly choosing to harm and sometimes kill their own citizens, by all appearances based on no principles at all other than opposing Democrats.
  • Given seven years to think about an alternative, Republicans are scrambling to come up with something better. If Obamacare is bad enough to repeal 50 times, it should be really easy to come up with something better. But if they were lying in order to fool the people who support them, if Obamacare was never really so bad, you could understand that it might be hard to come up with something better, which looks to be exactly the case.
  • Given seven years to come up with something better, you would think that Republicans could come up with an excellent plan that they could show to the public, expose to public hearings, and take some time to explain. Something they could be proud of. Instead, they are hiding it from us, afraid that if voters know what is in it, their members will face strong opposition from the public. They know their alternatives suck.
But Dennis, you ask, how can you believe that a major political party could perpetrate such a devious and despicable ruse just for political gain? Well, global warming anyone? The simple answer is, if there is money behind it, they can and they will and they have. And when it comes to the Republican rank and file believing a lie, there are the tens of millions who have questioned whether Barack Obama was born in the US, or who believe he is a Muslim, or who think that the economy got worse during Obama's term, or any number of other dumb things they believe.

And that is the real problem. I do not trust Republicans to have an honest and rational point of view about anything. If you do, I think you do not understand what is going on in this country. Look, healthcare is a real, complex issue, with plenty of room for discussion, but I do not want to discuss it with someone that I cannot trust to be rational. And that rules out Republicans. If we are going to sit down and discuss issues in a reasonable,rational, fact-based manner, Republicans do not deserve a seat at the table. Not at a table with me.

We all deal with the problem of confirmation bias. We believe something, and then we trust evidence that supports our belief and reject evidence that suggests we might be wrong. I do not know if anyone is immune. But Republicans don't just suffer from confirmation bias; they have embraced it as their preferred way of dealing with the world. According to polls, they do not trust any network news except Fox News (Google it; it's shocking.) Yes, the whole world is lying to them except the special network created just for them. Democrats by contrast, trust everything except Fox, but they trust Fox more than conservatives trust ABC, NBC, MSNBC, CNN, or CBS. Someone here is being very stupid. I wonder who?

In fact, Republicans have spent decades building a list of experts who cannot be trusted, so that they can brush away any new information without having it impact their thinking. Economists, historians, judges, entire Circuit Courts, the Congressional Budget Office, pollsters - even those with a long history of not favoring either party - anyone can be dismissed as fake news, liberal bias, paid by George Soros, blah blah blah. Republicans have now even convinced themselves that they, who know next to nothing, understand complex questions of science better than actual scientists who actually do know something.

There is room in the world for a conservative point of view. It is the voice that says that government may not be the answer to everything, or that not every social experiment is worth trying, or worth paying for. The problem is, the current version of the Republican Party does not represent that voice. The Republican Party represents nonsense, a very deliberate and carefully constructed retreat from reality, evidence, reason, and rational thought.

My solution? They need to be voted out of office, outnumbered, treated as social pariahs, and eventually sent the way of the Dixiecrats. I do not believe that the party as it is can be rehabilitated to the point that they discuss issues honestly and consider the facts. I believe, very strongly, that we need a United States that does not include the Republican Party, or in which they are completely marginalized. Pursuing some alternate reality in which Republicans come to the table and try to reach compromise and the best result for all Americans is a nice dream, but it's a pipe dream.

Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Game of Thrones Moments

I was thinking about this post and read a post on the Internet ranking all 60 Game of Thrones episodes from worst to best. Number 60? The same show I wrote about two years in a post titled "GoT - Worst Episode Ever." (Season 5, Episode 6) So I feel somewhat vindicated as a connoisseur of Game of Thrones.

Although I am a bit embarrassed that I used the GoT abbreviation. It seems silly now, like this is what the cool kids call it.

I am almost finished watching Game of Thrones, all six seasons, most of it for at least the third time. So now I will write a few things about it.

My top ten list is not necessarily "favorite" moments, but ten moments that were some combination of shocking, awesome, amazing in some way. A lot of them are from seasons one and six, because I saw season one before I read the books, and of course season six is all new to me. So some things in between, like Tywin's death or Jamie losing a hand, I knew those were coming, so they were not as shocking as they might have been.

Really, I only had nine best scenes, but you have to have ten.

Top 10 Game of Thrones moments

10. Viserys's death

Viserys was a really unpleasant character. I don't know that his death was really shocking, but the way they killed him, the way his head melted, pretty good.

9. Joffrey's death

A great scene, even though I knew it was coming. First, it's really gratifying to see Joffrey die, because he's kind of awful. But the way his face turns all colors, he totally looks like he's dying, really gruesome. Great stuff.

8. The birth of dragons

Let's take a very short break from deaths. Dragons have been extinct for 100 years, or is it 300? They're all gone, never to return. Then Dany walks out of a huge bonfire unharmed, with three live dragons. This changes everything.

7. The Red Wedding (Robb and Catelyn's deaths)

By the third time I watched, I was glad to see Catelyn die. She is soooo grim and gloomy and deathly serious about everything. Not Robb or Talisa though. The red wedding is the second time that we learn that in Martin's world, the heroes of the story die, and we are not sure who the story is about anymore. After this one, we know better than to think that Tyrion or Dany or Jon or Arya or Sansa or Bran will certainly survive to the end. No one is safe.

6. Drogon returns

Even knowing the first time that this was coming, even watching it for at least the fourth time, this scene is just exhilarating. Dany and her small band are surrounded, badly outnumbered. She realizes this is the end, all is lost. She grabs Missandei's hand, closes her eyes -- and we hear the scream of a dragon, followed by a huge ball of fire. Then Drogon circles in while everyone stares, lands with a thump, recognizes Dany, then burns up twenty men or so with one breath. Then another twenty. Then Dany climbs on and flies away. It is a rare moment of complete triumph.

5. Hardhome

This is one of several big battle scenes, and some of the others are really well done. However, nothing can quite match dead people hurtling themselves off of a cliff by the hundreds, then getting up and overwhelming the wildlings and the Night's Watch. By the time the Night King raises all the dead to join his army, we are just as awestruck as Jon Snow is. This is one hell of an enemy. Better hope the wall holds.

4. Shireen's death

Stannis is very stern, very determined, but he is also honorable to some extent, definitely not a villain like Joffrey or Ramsay. Until this scene. What really makes it work is that she screams and screams and screams, and it's horrifying. Like all of these last few scenes, I was left with my jaw dropped open. Did that really happen? Well no, it's fiction, but wow.

3. Cersei blows up Baelor's Sept (Margery and Loras and Mace and Lancel and Kevan and the High Sparrow's deaths.)

I think Kevan was there. We heard about wildfire under the city a long time back, but this was a great plot twist. Just when you think Cersei has finally hit the end of the road...

I do wonder sometimes though, who exactly is supporting Cersei, besides Qyburn and undead Gregor? It seems like virtually every other person in Westeros would take up arms against the three of them. Four if you count Jamie.

2. Ned's death

This is the first really shocking moment in Game of Thrones, and still the most shocking. It's the first time that we learn that the heroes in this story can die gruesome deaths. Up until this moment, Ned Stark is the main character in the story. Suddenly, we are left wondering who the hero is, who is the story about, although of course we soon realize that it's really about Robb...

1. Hodor's death

Hodor's death would not have been such a shock if it had not come with the realization, five seasons after we met the character, that this moment is the genesis of the word and name "Hodor." It comes at the end of a frantic action scene, and it is one of the sadder moments in the series, because Hodor is the sweetest and most innocent person in Westeros. And he dies in a heroic act.

Some other favorite moments, in no particular order:
  • Maester Aemon turns out to be Aemon Targaryen, one-time prince.
  • The battle of the bastards, especially Ramsay's death and Sansa's smile.
  • The battle on the Blackwater, with a huge wildfire explosion.
  • Tywin's death. Shouldn't have said "whore."
  • When the Hound loses his courage in the face of wildfire, he stops by to ask Sansa if she wants to leave with him. On first watching, it seems crazy. By the third time, you want to shake her and tell her to go with him. He's kind of a big softie. Even Arya likes him in the end.
  • When the Hound returns from the dead.
  • Some of Arya's story is boring, but I love the character and the actress.
  • Arya kills Walder Frey. He is so deserving.
  • Melisandre gives birth to a demon.
  • Petyr Baelish's monologue to Varys at the end of the episode called The Climb, about how chaos is a ladder, with a backdrop of Joffrey testing his crossbow on Roz. Even Varys is shocked. It's what caused me to put Baelish's picture on my phone.
  • Prince Oberyn nearly defeating Gregor Clegane. Very well done.
  • Benjen Stark returns, five seasons after he disappeared.
  • Jon Snow is Rhaegar and Lyanna's son. This theory was all over the Internet and began to seem inevitable by the time it happened, but it's still a big deal. A Song of Fire and Ice - Targaryen and Stark? The Prince Who Was Promised? George RR Martin setting us up for a crushing disappointment? We will see.