Game of Thrones Predictions

Dead or alive

I am no expert on Game of Thrones, let's be clear about that, nor am I a big follower of fan sites that pick the book and the show apart trying to find clues. I have, however, read the books, and I am currently 200 pages into the last book on my second reading. I have also seen every episode, most of them at least twice, many of them more than twice. Nevertheless, I am just guessing. Gotta do something for the next year and a half.

Who Lives, Who Dies?

Let's start with what I think of as the eight major characters remaining: 3 Lannisters, 2 Starks (sorry Bran), 1 Targaryen, 1 Targaryen/Stark, 1 Night King.

Jon Snow: Lives. He is, so it seems, Azor Ahai, the Prince Who Was Promised. He is ice and fire. He is the product of the noble Ned Stark's most noble deed - claiming that he had fathered a bastard in order to save and raise his sister's child. It would help explain why the first book gave Ned Stark so much attention before killing him.

Daenerys: Dies. It's not a happy thought, but it would resolve the question of who should sit on the throne, and the whole (Targaryen) incest thing, and it would prevent her from having children like the witch said. I will guess this is the way. It would also be unlike most of what we have seen of George R R Martin to give us such an inevitable winner from the beginning and then to have her win.

The Night King: Dies, gets destroyed. Probably defeated by Jon Snow/Aegon Targaryen. His entire army will then drop dead, so to speak.

Tyrion: Lives. I'm a little worried about him though, as I will explain.

Jamie: Lives. Jamie keeps evolving more than anyone else in the story. It would be a shame to kill him.

Sansa: Lives. I think Sansa has a future.

Arya: Lives. Again, I am not so sure, but she's just a girl (though granted a stone-cold killer.) You shouldn't kill a girl.

Cersei: Dies. It's hard to see her coming out on top. Cersei, like Littlefinger until quite recently, always seems to magically get away with bad behavior even though nearly every person alive should be her sworn enemy. It would be an unsatisfactory ending if the odds never caught up with her. And there is the prophecy...

Some lesser characters I do not think will make it:

Euron Greyjoy: I am guessing the Golden Company will never make it to Westeros, although in the book they do, but in a story line that the show left out. Maybe Theon will stop him, maybe dragons, maybe an unwise detour through the Smoking Sea.

Theon: Euron is a better fighter. Theon has been a tragic character for a long, long time. I think Yara gets away though.

Qyburn: Got to get rid of the bad guys eventually. I say dip him in wildfire and strike a match.

The Hound: The Lord of Light saved him for a purpose - so we could see him die a good death. Fighting Gregor Clegane is very dangerous. The Hound may take him out, but I say they both fall.

Jorah Mormont: Another tragic character. His death will be sad.

Beric Dondarion: Whatever.

Brienne: A fan favorite no doubt, but see below.

Others will mostly live, including Sam, Bran, the two remaining dragons, Varys, Bronn, Tormund, who I suspect survived the wall collapse.

Other Predictions

1. Jamie will kill Cersei. Cersei visited a witch and had the witch tell her future, back when Cersei was a girl. So far, the witch has been right about some very specific things, for example that Cersei would have three children and that she would bury them all. Now it looks like Cersei is pregnant, and that would be four, but the witch said three. I say she dies first. The prophecy also said that the "Valonquar" would eventually choke the life out of her. We are told the word means little brother, in some tongue from across the sea. Cersei would of course think that means Tyrion, but I started wondering which twin was born first. Turns out Jamie is also Cersei's little brother by a few minutes. It also turns out that I am not the first person to think of this.
2. Cersei is going to kill Brienne, or have her killed. Right now, in the show, Jamie is having serious doubts about his sister, but he is not ready to kill her. Something will have to put him over the edge, and my guess is that means that Cersei will be responsible for either Tyrion's death or Brienne's. The show, and the books, spent a fair amount of time establishing a strong connection between Jamie and Brienne. I am guessing it will be Brienne.
3. Jon will sit on the iron throne in the end. The only real wild card was Littlefinger, but no longer. It could be the Night King, but not likely. Otherwise, Jon, Cersei, and Danerys are the only decent candidates. I don't think Cersei is really in the running. I think Jon.
4. Sansa will become Queen of the North. Sooner or later the northern lords will find out that Jon Snow is Aegon Targaryen, rightful heir to the iron throne, and not rightful heir to Winterfell. They will not continue to follow him. Jon being the good guy that he is will grant Sansa rule of the North.
5. Jon will ride Rhaegal, the second living dragon, allowing him and and Danerys to gang up on the Night King and Viserion, the undead dragon.

I am already wondering how much of this I got wrong. We will see.

Donald Trump does a lot of things I do not like much, but pardoning Joe Arpaio for some reason struck me as particularly unpardonable, if you will, so here is a little post by me trying to explain, to myself as much as anyone, what it was about this particular atrocity that struck me as unredeemable.

A Racist Pardons a Racist for Being a Racist

Hmm, that might be the only reason I need. But anyway, unlike many of Trump's follies - repealing Obamacare and replacing it with something better, or something worse, or anything, or nothing, for example - pardoning Arpaio was not Republican dogma. This was Donald Trump doing what Donald Trump wanted to do, and what he wanted was to pardon a man who is only known on a national scale for using his public office to enforce racist practices, and who was convicted of the crime of using his office to continue racist policies after being told to stop it by a federal court. After Charlottesville, this is just another signal to the racist right wing that our President supports white nationalism.

Arpaio is a Bad, Bad Guy

The Phoenix New Times tweeted a long list of some of the things Arpaio has done over the years, more than just defying a federal court. People died because of this man:

• A guy baked in his cell in one of Arpaio's prison cells, His dead body temperature was 109 degrees.
• Prisoners hanged themselves at a surprising rate in his jails.
• A mother giving birth was denied care long enough that her baby died before she got to the hospital. "Babies often survive the condition, if their mothers go immediately to a hospital. The treatment is simple: immediate delivery."
• He once marched Latino prisoners into an area surrounded by an electric fence.
• He had two reporters arrested for writing about him. They sued and won $3.75 million.
• The numbers seem to differ, but the brutality of his jails and his history of racial profiling have cost Maricopa county somewhere between $44 million and $140 million in court costs, settlements and judgments.

He did not deserve a pardon.

This Smacks of Corruption

Arpaio was an early and enthusiastic Trump supporter (and a known racist. Huh.) Trump pardoned him without even the usual review. It certainly seems as though Trump pardoned him at least partially as a political favor. If that is how pardons will be used, we need to alter the constitution to take away the President's power to pardon.

This Is Not the Usual Pardon

I suppose that by their very nature, Presidential pardons involve the President overriding the criminal courts. However, in most cases the person receiving the pardon has served some punishment and shown some cause why they should be pardoned. Arpaio has not shown contrition and had not even been sentenced. This is not a case of the President saying that Arpaio has somehow redeemed himself. This is the President saying that defying a federal court by racially profiling citizens is OK - that he does not agree with the law, so he is just setting it aside. That seems abusive to me. Pardons were never meant for the President to just decide which laws should be followed and which can be ignored. Again, it really makes you think that Trump should never have been handed that power.

So this one leaves a bitter taste. Donald Trump is an awful person, but pardoning Joe Arpaio went beyond his usual standards of awfulness.