In all likelihood, the American Reich reached its high point on October 6, 2018, the day Brett Kavanaugh was sworn onto the Supreme Court. At that time, Republicans had a firm majority on the Supreme Court, a majority in the House of Representatives, a majority in the Senate, and the presidency, a clean sweep of the major government institutions. They also had a firm advantage at the state level and were busy packing the lower federal courts with their nominees. It is theoretically possible that they could gain even more power, increase their majorities, hold them for years or even decades, wipe out the Democratic Party, and so on, but more likely, they are currently at their high point. They are in such a good position that there are many more ways to go down from here than there are to go up.
A Shaky Foundation
Minority Rules
One real weakness with the Republicans' hold on power is that none of it is based on winning the (small-d) democratic vote. Donald Trump, of course, lost the popular vote by two percentage points and nearly three million votes. Republicans took over the Supreme Court despite losing the popular vote in six of the last seven presidential elections due to the good fortune of winning two of those elections despite losing the popular vote, and due to a power grab by Mitch McConnell. The Senate is inherently undemocratic, as little red states like Wyoming and Alaska have the same number of Senators as California and New York, and it is clear that this benefits Republicans. And even the House of Representatives does not represent the voters, as Republicans have gerrymandered the districts so effectively that political analysts estimate Democrats have to win the popular vote by something like six percent in order to win the majority of representatives. In 2012, Democrats won more votes for representatives than Republicans did, despite the Republicans' large incumbency advantage, but they did not come close to gaining control of the House. In 2018, Democrats will win more votes again, but control of the House is not certain.
Trump
Donald Trump has become the leader, the face, the voice of the Republican Party. The party is so closely tied to him that there is now no going back, no way to claim that Donald Trump does not represent everything the party stands for. When Donald Trump was elected, it was clear to the world that he was a racist. It was known by everyone that he was a sexist pig. There was no doubt that the man was personally a jackass. He was corrupt. He was mentally unfit for office, going off on irrational rants whenever someone attacked him. He was unprepared and not particularly interested in the details of government. He was a pathological liar, telling lies big and small at a rate no political observer had ever seen. He had a history as a business cheat.
The biggest thing that has changed since the 2016 election is that Trump has reinforced all of those things. One could have imagined that some of the things he said during the campaign were just intended to get him elected, and that he would change as President. We cannot imagine that anymore, as Trump has demonstrated that none of it was just rhetoric. He continues to be a liar, racist, and sexist, corrupt, mentally unprepared and unfit, and personally despicable. Those things are who he is, and that makes him vulnerable. He should never have been President, for a whole range of reasons, and that can easily catch up with him.
Lies
I think it started with the idea that the press is biased against conservatives. I have read that even some of the Republican leaders who promoted this idea back in Nixon's day did not really believe it, but they were trying to push the media to avoid the appearance of bias by being more lenient toward conservatives.
What it grew into from there is that Republicans now choose not to believe any source of information, from the media to scientists to academics to the courts and more. Of course, this skepticism is very selective; Republicans are actually happy to believe in the media, or polling, or fact checkers, or scientists, or any voice of authority that supports their political viewpoints, but give themselves permission to selectively reject evidence or experts or facts when anything contradicts their preset beliefs.
The end result of this rejection of information is that the Republican Party is built on lies. Their adherents have trained themselves to believe what they read or hear based on what they want to believe, and to find some handy excuse to reject information they do not like.
Here are a few times that conservatives surprised me with the things they chose to believe (they don't surprise me much anymore):
- George Bush and his minions insisted that they knew that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, and that was the major reason we went to war with Iraq. They said that they knew, over and over and over, even though some people (Hans Blix of the UN, for one) were still expressing doubts. When you know something, that means you are certain. Then, when it turned out that there were no weapons of mass destruction, Republicans insisted that Bush never lied about them. It seemed pretty cut and dried to me.
- Bush and company tortured people, then insisted that they did not because they redefined the word "torture" to exclude the acts of torture they committed. It was straight out of George Orwell. Conservatives bought it somehow.
- Conservatives decided to reject the science of global warming, because dark money donors including the Koch brothers insisted that they just reject the idea rather than address the problem. One thing that was crazy about this was that conservatives had a good alternative -- accept the evidence, then they could have recommended their most business-friendly solutions to help solve the problem. Rejecting the science should never have been considered.
- Before John McCain selected Sarah Palin as his running mate, conservatives had made a big deal about Barack Obama's lack of experience. After McCain selected Palin, who obviously lacked the experience or background to be Vice-President, or President if called upon, I had a short time to wonder how Republicans would explain this one. I decided that they had a reasonable explanation -- McCain did not need that type of experience on the ticket due to his own deep experience, and besides, Palin was running for Vice-President whereas Obama wanted to be President. Again, they had a decent spin available. Instead, they chose to lie and say that she had plenty of experience, an idea they would have all certainly rejected if she had been a Democrat.
- Republicans could have contributed to a solution to health care, but instead they made a pact to oppose President Obama's policies as a united block rather than do anything to make the country better. The craziest part was that they could have taken credit for the actual solution that was implemented, which lacked a single payer option, worked through insurance companies, paid for itself, and was based on Romneycare. They chose to lie about it instead, and now they are boxed in because it is hard to create a scheme that is more consistent with conservatism than Obamacare but still provides decent insurance options.
Support of less than half of the people, Trump as the standard-bearer, and a foundation of lies and the fools who believe the lies. Republicans are on shaky ground.
The Fall
The House
Tomorrow, November 6, 2018, is election day for the 2018 midterms. Chances are the House of Representatives will change to Democratic control. If that happens, any Republican legislative initiatives will screech to a halt as soon as the new Congress is seated. In addition, there will immediately be push-back from Congress whenever the President oversteps his authority, something that has been completely lacking with Republicans in control. The limits of the power of the presidency will be tested, as they should have been before now.
Most importantly, Congress will again act as a check on the President by investigating abuses and corruption, instead of acting as his protectors and carrying out embarrassing investigations of Hillary Clinton and the FBI. This President will not survive having a light shining on his activities and his past, and Congress will start looking in every corner. Losing the House will be the first step in the downfall of the Reich.
The Governors
Democrats are also likely to win races for governor of several states that are currently held by Republicans, including some big ones like Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. One big reason this is important is that when the next census is conducted in 2020, Democratic governors will be in position to prevent Republican state legislatures from gerrymandering the states again, like they did after the 2010 elections. An illuminating truth about the current election climate is that Democrats are fighting to ensure that voting is fair -- that everyone has a chance to vote, that districts are drawn fairly, that people get out and vote. Republicans are fighting to make sure that voting is not fair, because fair voting is bad for them. Democratic governors will making voting more democratic.
The Presidency
Robert Mueller will probably release charges against President Trump sometime after the midterm elections. At this point, I am not so sure that Trump will be impeached and removed from office, as Republicans have shown that they will go to great lengths to protect him no matter what he does, but chances are Mueller will have some pretty serious revelations, including some transgressions we do not know about yet. But even if his investigation does not bring down the presidency, it will do some damage. People are waking up to Donald Trump's many failings, and charges against him will help energize millions of people who are already starting to organize in opposition.
In 2020, whether Trump is still President or Mike Pence is, the American people will have a chance to make up for the blunder they made in 2016. For the most part, I do not expect the people who voted for Trump to change their ways; however, I do believe that any complacency and Democratic Party infighting that allowed Trump to get elected in 2016 will be set aside, and enough voters will get out and vote to turn over the office to Democrats.
The Senate
The Senate is always going to be tough. There is a decent chance that Democrats will actually lose ground in 2018, although they are hoping for small gains if everything falls right. In 2020, many more Republicans are defending their jobs, but most of those are in red states, so taking more than one or two seats will be difficult for Democrats. The same is true in 2022, although maybe they can pick up a seat or two in each election and grab a small minority.
The Senate is critical, because Democrats will need it in order to begin reversing the damage Republicans have done to the federal courts. The best hope may be to grab at least 50 seats in 2020 and then win the Presidency as well, giving Democrats the tie-breaker.
The Courts
Once the Democrats win the Presidency or the Senate, the Republican stacking of the federal courts will stop. If they can win both, they can start pushing their own justices through. The Supreme Court is a problem, but there are a couple of possible solutions. First, when a Democrat becomes President, we will all cross our fingers and hope that Clarence Thomas dies right away, or becomes incapacitated, or just retires. Or one of the other right-wingers, doesn't really matter. Yeah, that sounds mean. Screw it. Merrick Garland.
The second possibility is that, if Democrats control everything, they can increase the number of Supreme Court justices to eleven and push through two more liberal justices. It sounds radical, but again, Merrick Garland, and increasing the court size would be less radical than the treatment of Garland, because the purpose would simply be to right a wrong and align the court with the wishes of the American people. While it is true that Democrats are unlikely to have the stones to do such a thing, it is possible that the threat could put some limits on the court's partisan decision-making.
In any case, hold the presidency long enough, and the opportunity to change the Supreme Court will arise.
The Whole Party
At this point, Republicans are represented by Donald Trump. I think that they will be connected with him as long as they survive, which means that they will be the party of racism, sexism, divisiveness, dishonesty, incompetence, corruption, etc. I think it will be hard for them to shake that reputation, if for no other reason than that their voters expect those traits now. Middle of the road Republicans have been chased from the party by big donors and crazed voters, and any attempt to bring the party back to sanity will be rejected, as is already happening.
One might think that the American voters would wise up, finally realize that they have been duped, and kick the bums out once and for all. I do not have that kind of faith in the American voters, not after 2016. But the demographics are changing, and as non-white voters increase in number, the Republican message, which to a large extent says that non-whites are the problem, will not appeal to them. Younger voters are much more liberal, and they will replace older voters as the older voters die off. And Democrats are laser-focused on getting those non-white people and younger people and women out to vote, understanding that if everyone votes, liberal policies and liberal politicians will win.
It may take a while still -- it has taken a long time already -- but the Republican Party will face a reckoning one day, and the backlash will be harsh. With any luck, they will look back one day soon and realize that right now, right when they were at their highest point, this was the beginning of the end.
Most importantly, Congress will again act as a check on the President by investigating abuses and corruption, instead of acting as his protectors and carrying out embarrassing investigations of Hillary Clinton and the FBI. This President will not survive having a light shining on his activities and his past, and Congress will start looking in every corner. Losing the House will be the first step in the downfall of the Reich.
The Governors
Democrats are also likely to win races for governor of several states that are currently held by Republicans, including some big ones like Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. One big reason this is important is that when the next census is conducted in 2020, Democratic governors will be in position to prevent Republican state legislatures from gerrymandering the states again, like they did after the 2010 elections. An illuminating truth about the current election climate is that Democrats are fighting to ensure that voting is fair -- that everyone has a chance to vote, that districts are drawn fairly, that people get out and vote. Republicans are fighting to make sure that voting is not fair, because fair voting is bad for them. Democratic governors will making voting more democratic.
The Presidency
Robert Mueller will probably release charges against President Trump sometime after the midterm elections. At this point, I am not so sure that Trump will be impeached and removed from office, as Republicans have shown that they will go to great lengths to protect him no matter what he does, but chances are Mueller will have some pretty serious revelations, including some transgressions we do not know about yet. But even if his investigation does not bring down the presidency, it will do some damage. People are waking up to Donald Trump's many failings, and charges against him will help energize millions of people who are already starting to organize in opposition.
In 2020, whether Trump is still President or Mike Pence is, the American people will have a chance to make up for the blunder they made in 2016. For the most part, I do not expect the people who voted for Trump to change their ways; however, I do believe that any complacency and Democratic Party infighting that allowed Trump to get elected in 2016 will be set aside, and enough voters will get out and vote to turn over the office to Democrats.
The Senate
The Senate is always going to be tough. There is a decent chance that Democrats will actually lose ground in 2018, although they are hoping for small gains if everything falls right. In 2020, many more Republicans are defending their jobs, but most of those are in red states, so taking more than one or two seats will be difficult for Democrats. The same is true in 2022, although maybe they can pick up a seat or two in each election and grab a small minority.
The Senate is critical, because Democrats will need it in order to begin reversing the damage Republicans have done to the federal courts. The best hope may be to grab at least 50 seats in 2020 and then win the Presidency as well, giving Democrats the tie-breaker.
The Courts
Once the Democrats win the Presidency or the Senate, the Republican stacking of the federal courts will stop. If they can win both, they can start pushing their own justices through. The Supreme Court is a problem, but there are a couple of possible solutions. First, when a Democrat becomes President, we will all cross our fingers and hope that Clarence Thomas dies right away, or becomes incapacitated, or just retires. Or one of the other right-wingers, doesn't really matter. Yeah, that sounds mean. Screw it. Merrick Garland.
The second possibility is that, if Democrats control everything, they can increase the number of Supreme Court justices to eleven and push through two more liberal justices. It sounds radical, but again, Merrick Garland, and increasing the court size would be less radical than the treatment of Garland, because the purpose would simply be to right a wrong and align the court with the wishes of the American people. While it is true that Democrats are unlikely to have the stones to do such a thing, it is possible that the threat could put some limits on the court's partisan decision-making.
In any case, hold the presidency long enough, and the opportunity to change the Supreme Court will arise.
The Whole Party
At this point, Republicans are represented by Donald Trump. I think that they will be connected with him as long as they survive, which means that they will be the party of racism, sexism, divisiveness, dishonesty, incompetence, corruption, etc. I think it will be hard for them to shake that reputation, if for no other reason than that their voters expect those traits now. Middle of the road Republicans have been chased from the party by big donors and crazed voters, and any attempt to bring the party back to sanity will be rejected, as is already happening.
One might think that the American voters would wise up, finally realize that they have been duped, and kick the bums out once and for all. I do not have that kind of faith in the American voters, not after 2016. But the demographics are changing, and as non-white voters increase in number, the Republican message, which to a large extent says that non-whites are the problem, will not appeal to them. Younger voters are much more liberal, and they will replace older voters as the older voters die off. And Democrats are laser-focused on getting those non-white people and younger people and women out to vote, understanding that if everyone votes, liberal policies and liberal politicians will win.
It may take a while still -- it has taken a long time already -- but the Republican Party will face a reckoning one day, and the backlash will be harsh. With any luck, they will look back one day soon and realize that right now, right when they were at their highest point, this was the beginning of the end.
